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Mainland property market moderate Consolidation – Sohu securities-www.gdosta.org.cn

Mainland property market moderate Consolidation – Sohu securities reporter Huang Yingying data show that in January the mainland real estate market is relatively stable, the first tier cities high-quality plots are still fierce competition for housing prices. However, some institutions pointed out that in 2016 the mainland property market to inventory pressure, is unlikely to appear the same as in 2015 boom, the property market will enter a moderate consolidation period. The competitive quality plots of GF Securities report said that in January 2016 30 related stock movements 0 city launched residential land area of 80 million 40 thousand square meters (growth of about -54%, an increase of -22%), the transaction area of 60 million 690 thousand square meters (-61% growth, a year-on-year growth of -24%), turnover of 143 billion 600 million yuan of land transfer (growth -57%, mom an increase of -7%), floor price of 2367 yuan square meters, the average premium rate of about 31%. On the whole, the pace of land supply slowed down in the beginning of the year, and the transaction also showed a seasonal decline. But floor prices and premium rates are rising, especially the premium rate climbed to a single month high in nearly 5 years. Specifically, in 2016 January, the first tier cities off-season performance is more obvious, supply and demand with the chain are showing a significant drop, sell gold ring down significantly, the four major cities in Shanghai alone more than 10 billion. It is worth noting that, the first tier cities high-quality land is still subject to fierce competition in housing prices. Second tier cities land supply and demand are weak operation, floor prices and premium rates have risen significantly, mainly due to such as Nanjing, Hangzhou, Wuhan and other key second tier cities high quality land pull impact. From the transaction point of view, the national real estate market in January is relatively stable. State Securities report shows that in January, a sample of 32 city new home sales rose 10.9%, and the three quarter of last year the average monthly sales were flat, first-tier cities fell 3% year-on-year, two or three line city sales rose 12% and 17%, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta is still driven by the engine of new home sales, year-on-year growth of 23%, 30%. Inventory pressure, although Shenzhen and other cities last year volume and price rise, but many institutions said that in 2016 the real estate inventory pressure is greater. Moodie rating report pointed out that China’s construction of residential area of 5 billion 100 million square meters. According to an average of 2.97 people per household estimates, China’s 1 billion 400 million population is equivalent to about 460 million families. Assuming that China’s homeownership rate rises from 90% to 100%, the new real estate buyers will easily absorb all the residential areas under construction. The current problem is that the prices of commercial housing are high and the effective demand is insufficient. Galaxy Securities pointed out that the current commercial housing stock can only meet the needs of 50% urban households, and the actual price can effectively bear the current demand is only about 40% of the potential demand. If the quality of housing is better than other residential housing, commercial housing market still has support, mainly too expensive to buy, there is a suite of family replacement to improve demand or storage space. Galaxy Securities judge, the real estate industry will focus on inventory to speed up the introduction of various policies, but the household registration and housing system reform and migrant workers citizenization needs long-term mechanism coordination,.

内地楼市料温和盘整-搜狐证券   本报记者 黄莹颖  数据显示,1月内地房地产市场较平稳,一线城市优质地块仍受到房企激烈争抢。不过,部分机构指出,2016年内地楼市去库存压力较大,不太可能出现同2015年一样的景气度,楼市会进入温和盘整期。  优质地块竞争激烈  广发证券报告表示,2016年1月30 相关公司股票走势 0城市住宅用地推出建面8004万平方米(环比增长约-54%,同比增长-22%),成交建面6069万平方米(环比增长-61%,同比增长-24%),成交土地出让金1436亿元(环比增长-57%,同比增长-7%),楼面均价2367元 平米,平均溢价率约31%。整体来看,年初供地节奏放缓,成交也呈现季节性下滑。但楼面价和溢价率均攀升,尤其是溢价率攀升至近5年来单月新高。  具体看,2016年1月份,一线城市淡季特征表现更明显,供需同环比均呈现明显回落,出让金环比回落显著,四大一线城市中仅上海超过百亿。值得注意的是,一线城市优质地块依旧受到房企激烈竞争。二线城市土地供需均弱势运行,楼面价以及溢价率均攀升显著,主要是受诸如南京、杭州、武汉等重点二线城市优质地块拉动影响。  从成交等方面看,1月全国房地产市场较平稳。国金证券报告显示,1月32个样本城市新房销售同比上升10.9%,与去年三季度月均销售量持平,一线城市同比小幅下跌3%,二、三线城市销量同比提升12%、17%,长三角和珠三角依旧是带动新房销量的引擎,同比大幅增长23%、30%。  去库存压力大  尽管深圳等一线城市去年量价齐涨,但不少机构表示,2016年房地产去库存压力较大。  穆迪评级一份报告指出,中国在建的住宅面积为51亿平方米。按照平均每户2.97人估算,中国14亿人口相当于约4.6亿户家庭。假设中国的住房拥有率从90%上升至100%,这些新增的房地产买家将很容易地吸收所有的在建住宅面积。目前的问题是,商品住宅价格高企,有效需求不足。  银河证券指出,目前商品住宅存量大约仅能满足50%城镇家庭的需求,而真正可以承担现在房价的有效需求大概只占潜在需求的40%左右。如果认为商品房的居住质量好于其他住宅的话,商品房市场依然有支撑,主要还是太贵买不起的问题,已有一套房的家庭置换改善需求或存空间。  银河证券判断,房地产行业将围绕去库存加速出台各项政策,但户籍与住房制度改革及农民工市民化需要长效机制的配合,可能需要时间。考虑到2015年二季度开始的高成交基数透支了部分需求,谨慎看好2016年楼市,预计全国销售面积维持在12-13亿平方米之间,销售额升幅或有所收窄。  穆迪认为,2016年中国房地产销售额增长率将降至0-5%的温和水准,低于2015年的16.6%。相关的主题文章: